AI and Early Warning Systems:

From the September 11 attacks to the coronavirus pandemic, recent deficiencies in early warning systems have been jolting, reflecting startling failures of intelligence and security decisionmaking. Can technological innovation remedy the flaws in threat detection? If so, how? Robert Mandel argues that the answer lies in a hybrid system—"human-in-the-loop" artificial intelligence—and demonstrates through diverse case studies when and how such a system can facilitate the right security-maximizing choices to meet both intelligence and defense needs.