This year, August became the fifteenth straight month of record high global temperatures. We are seeing the consequences now. For example, Phoenix, Arizona experienced 113 consecutive days of temperatures over 100ºF, smashing the previous record of 76 days in 1993. Hospitals reported patients suffered serious burns from touching hot surfaces such as pavement. In late September 2024, Hurricane Helene struck the US Southeast, resulting in over 200 fatalities and nearly $100 billion in damages. Broadly, societies have endured scorching heat waves, destructive hurricanes, devastating floods, and unprecedented species loss on every continent.
The resulting higher temperatures mean societies and communities must adapt to a much warmer global climate, and even more adaptation will be required in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body charged with informing policymakers of the most recent climate science, states that adaptation is about “reducing climate risks and vulnerability,” and it asserts adaptation should enable “climate resilient development.” Adaptation entails a process of adjustment to changing climatic conditions to reduce the damage to the ecology and to human society. International negotiations, scholarship, and science have increased their emphasis on adaptation as global average temperatures have risen and prospects for meeting emissions reduction goals have dimmed.As temperatures rise even further, adaptation could demand profound alteration of social, economic and political institutions. Transformational adaptation in a radically changed world could be required to cope with massive human migration, profound changes to agricultural practices, severe stress on infrastructure and human habitation, health threats, and more.
The most recent two major IPCC reports assert that rising temperatures could require transformational adaptation rather than such incremental adaptations as strengthening infrastructure and installing air conditioning. Numerous policy makers and scholars have adopted the language of transformation to signal the urgency of the climate crisis, including the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
The pressing question might become whether existing global and national institutions are capable of identifying, selecting, and implementing the drastic measures that a hot world will require. It may be that a growth-oriented global economy in a world order dominated by heavily armed sovereign states simply cannot recognize, choose, or implement effective, humane forms of adaptation. If adaptation demands reallocation of resources away from current priorities such as military spending, maximizing profits, and consumerism, then a global capitalistic state system could stand as the major obstacle to meeting the climate challenge. If so, then transformation must encompass profound change in global and national economic, political, social, and cultural institutions. Thus, transformation would mean much more than the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Transformation would mean radical social change, probably to ecosocialism.
Although the IPCC has asserted the importance of transformational responses to climate change, and many officials and scholars have made the same plea, the fact is that high-level negotiations proceed as if existing institutions are largely unalterable, and that they are capable of managing the problem.
But if existing institutions prove unable to meet the challenge, then the world could experience chaotic, poorly planned, inequitable and even violent responses to the social disruptions resulting from climate change. Accordingly, leaders in the UN, other important international organizations, national governments, and citizens must take seriously the full scope of what adaptation might require for civilization to survive and thrive.
The study I conducted showed that adaptation has been part of the global dialogue on climate change since the world first paid attention to the problem. Over the decades, adaptation became understood to require profound institutional transformation. But official negotiators have not embraced the full implications of transformation. Possibly, as the effects of climate change become more obvious and more damaging, transformational adaptation of economic and political institutions will be on the global agenda. The world can only hope that it is not too late.